COMMENT ⊗   VALID 00002 PAGES
C REC  PAGE   DESCRIPTION
C00001 00001
C00002 00002	world[s88,jmc]		The problems of the world
C00008 ENDMK
C⊗;
world[s88,jmc]		The problems of the world

	This is a survey of the problems facing the world and
what should and should not be done about them.  We begin with
some remarks.

	1. We may identify a problem that will lead to the death of
humanity unless we do something about it.  This is not a sufficient reason
to work on it now.  The problem may not be urgent.  Here are three
examples of vital but not urgent problems.

	a. The next ice age.  According to the now widely accepted
Milankovich theory that ice ages are caused by periodic changes in the
earth's orbit around the sun, we are due for another ice age in a few
thousand years.  Were an ice age to occur suddenly, it would be disastrous
for much of humanity.  The problem is not urgent, because doing something
to prevent the ice age or adapt to it will be technological, and we can
expect that the technological ability of humanity will be vastly greater
even 100 years from now.

	b. The heat death of the universe.  In the normal course of
events there won't be any solar systems capable of sustaining life
in a few hundred billion years, and it is hard to see how even the
most extreme measures in the most optimistic scenario compatible
with present understanding of physics can sustain life more than
$10↑{60}$ years.  (We won't go into how such an extension might
be accomplished in this paper).  Very likely humanity is doomed
in the long run, but very likely humanity will take the same
attitude towards its eventual extinction that an individual person
takes towards his own; there's lots to do in the meantime.

	c. The sun will move off the what the astronomers call the
main sequence in a few billion years, and will expand to engulf the
earth.  Humanity will then have to move to other solar systems.
Ideas about how this might be done have only entertainment value
today.

Overpopulation

	It is apparent that a geometrically increasing population
would eventually overwhelm any material resources.  I have computed
that all the sun's energy could not sustain more than $10↑{27}$ people,
and the populations of some countries are increasing at two percent
per year.  If this continues, the energy resources of the solar
system will all be required in somewhat over 3,000 years.  This doesn't
necessarily mean that population is an urgent problem in the U.S.
Countries are sovereign, and there is little we can do or are motivated
to do to make (say) Bangladesh reduce its rate of growth.  However,
Bangladesh will reach its limit long before we do, and its fate will
be a lesson to us.

Lack of smart people

	We will discuss the time scale of the U.S. overpopulation problem
later.  However, if we assume that the U.S. could support the same
number of people as China now supports, the U.S. problem won't become
urgent for 140 years.  The lack of smart people which may be partly
due to antinatalist propaganda seems to be a more urgent problem.
The number of people scoring 700 or more on the verbal SAT declined
from 33,000 in 1965 to 14,000 in 1985.  Admittedly, a decline in
intelligence is only one possible explanation, and indeed it is never
mentioned in the newspaper discussion.